we've done our homework. the world figured out as it stands. driving forces and root causes understood. strategy adjusted and set in motion. the rest: autopilot. now we sit back and observe. watch for sea change. how to spot it. what to look out for?
recap: the endless fight between rich/poor, powerful/weak, elites/plebs has tilted towards capital. bargaining power demolished, guardrails dismantled. a larger share of civilisation's growing wealth to capital. labour pushed back, left to fight for crumbs. losers keep losing. the winners share one trait. owning capital. accumulating, growing, stacking, compounding, repeat.
happy days. right? hold on. things can change. things will change. we don't need to know when. we need to notice. watch for early warning signs. what could undermine our strategy? nothing changes, we keep sailing. assumptions no longer hold, we adapt. 3 variables: progress of human civilisation, labour and capital. government is a derivative of the three. too much time is spent on government as a driving force. a side show. same for the environment, climate change, birth rates. derivatives. here at 499 we peel the layers, down to the fundamentals.
progress: with every technological quantum leap we reach a new height, then climb again. hundreds of years. despite wars, pandemics, catastrophes. the motto stays: bigger. higher. faster. I see no fundamental deviation from that path. degrowth, luddites, political targets. artificial boundaries that pale against new technology. serious signs of slowing should concern us.
labour: historically in thrall to capital owners. revolts are the common sign: welfare too depressed, fairness tilted, drifted too far. but the squeeze alone breeds nothing. selling your day to eat leaves no evening left to think. the tighter the squeeze, the tighter the binding. labour can only fight back in numbers. collective bargaining the biggest invention. power shifted towards labour. wonderful, for a few decades. then capital fought back. the older distribution restored. laws repealed. labour splintered into fractions. each fighting its own corner. individualism the biggest lie. changes needed: who counts as labour, plebs recognising their position, rejection of individualism, identifying the true enemy. nothing else matters.
capital: biggest winner of the last two, maybe five decades. destroyed labour's unity and its hard fought laws. ingrained the working class mentality. indoctrinated. cut guardrails, anti-competition laws, squashed the commons, private ownership over public. draconian tax for labour, minuscule wealth tax. favourable property rights for capital. a capitalist's dream.
any change to the three, any reining in of capital may tip the scale. not a headline gone in a week. many changes stacking, or a revolution: violent, chaotic, bloody. not every turn is bloody. the germans call 1989 die Wende. the turn. a tide does the same. ebb, everything running one way for decades. the turn, the slack moment when it stops. then flood, rising with nobody rowing. it does not announce itself. long visible to the weather eye. a surprise to the blind. so we sit. we watch. no change, we keep sailing. whose side do you belong to?